The soil carbon market in numbers
Volumes, prices, growth trajectory and buyer profiles
The global voluntary market is ~2.5 Bn€ in 2025, projected at 15 Bn€ by 2035. Agricultural soil credits, still a modest share, are growing at a CAGR of ~32 %. High-quality prices exceed 80 €/tCO₂eq.
How big is the soil carbon market? At what price do credits trade? Who buys them? This article gathers the 2024-2026 market figures and the 2030 trajectory, distinguishing the agricultural soil segment from other voluntary market families.
Global VCM: ~2.5 Bn€ (2025), projected 15 Bn€ (2035).
Voluntary agriculture credits: 54 M USD (2025), projected 648 M USD by 2034.
VCM average spot price: ~6 USD/t. A-AAA credits: ~14.80 USD/t. CCP: +25 % premium.
2024: 190 M credits issued (+12 % YoY), 176 M retired. H1 2025: 95 M retired (record).
The global voluntary market size
The voluntary carbon market (VCM) has followed a bumpy trajectory since 2019. Peak of around 2 billion USD in 2021 (COP26 effect and net-zero commitments), pullback in 2022-2023 under integrity controversies (Guardian report on Verra, Shell and Gucci exiting), then stabilisation and restart in 2024-2025 driven by ICVCM work and consolidation around Core Carbon Principles. Market value in 2025 is estimated at around 2.5 billion euros by specialised analysts (MSCI, AlliedOffsets, BloombergNEF). The 2035 projection varies by scenario: between 10 and 50 billion euros, with a median scenario around 15 billion. Structural driver: scaling corporate net-zero commitments, CSRD and ISSB reporting obligations coming into force, and the emerging European CRCF.
Issued and retired volumes: the real activity measure
Beyond monetary value, market activity is measured in credits issued and credits retired (used by an end buyer for a claim). In 2024, about 190 million credits were issued across standards (Verra, Gold Standard, ACR, CAR, Puro.earth, Plan Vivo), up 12 % vs 2023. In the same year, 176 million credits were retired. H1 2025 set a record half-year: 95 million credits retired, up vs H1 2024. This dynamic shows that effective consumption is catching up with issuance, the sign of a market clearing and renewing itself. For soils specifically, volumes remain modest (a few million credits annually), but relative growth is among fast-growing of any segment.
The agricultural soil segment specifically
The regenerative agriculture credit segment of the voluntary market remains a niche in absolute value, but it is fast-growing-growing niche. 2025 estimate: about 54 million USD in annual revenue, projected to 648 million USD by 2034 (CAGR 31.9 % per specialised analysts). Several forces drive this growth: massive adoption of net-zero commitments demanding removals, corporate demand favouring territorial projects (European food, beverage, finance), growing methodological maturity (Verra VM0042 v2.2, Gold Standard SOC 402.x, Label Bas-Carbone Grandes Cultures). The upcoming European CRCF framework expected in 2026-2027 is anticipated as an additional trigger: it will make soil credits more legible, more tradable and probably more expensive (regulation tends to reward compliance).
Observed prices
Prices on the VCM have segmented sharply since 2023. The all-categories average spot price hovers around 6 USD/tCO₂eq (2025), dragged down by large commodity avoidance volumes (older REDD+ generations, older-methodology cookstoves) trading at 1-3 USD/t. On high quality: A-AAA-rated credits (Sylvera, BeZero, Calyx) trade at about 14.80 USD/tCO₂eq on average, and CCP-approved credits command a ~25 % premium. For European soil credits specifically: Label Bas-Carbone between 30 and 80 €/t depending on the project, Verra VM0042 between 50 and 150 €/t, Gold Standard SOC between 80 and 200 €/t. Technological DAC stays much higher (300 to 1,000 €/t). This price hierarchy reflects methodological rigour, permanence and co-benefits.
Who buys: dominant profiles
Buyers fall into four dominant profiles. (1) Large companies with SBTi-validated net-zero commitments: food and beverage (Nestlé, Danone, Carlsberg), tech (Microsoft, Google, Stripe), finance (HSBC, BNP Paribas), automotive, luxury. A structural market base. (2) Sectoral coalitions: aviation (CORSIA, SAF), maritime, cement, chemicals, structuring group purchases for hard-to-abate emissions. (3) Public buyers: sovereign states (notably UK, Sweden, Japan), municipalities, agencies. (4) Market intermediaries and traders (not the end buyer but structuring supply). On the European soil segment specifically, dominant buyers in 2026 are European food groups, financial institutions and EU-based tech players.
Buyer volumes: typical magnitudes
What typical volumes per profile? Global leaders source at huge scale: Microsoft announced in 2025 more than 30 million tonnes of contracted removals by 2030, a significant share in agricultural and forest soils. Stripe (Frontier consortium) targets 1 billion USD of removals by 2030. In Europe and France, volumes are more modest but growing: a large French food group typically contracts 50,000 to 500,000 tonnes of annual removals, of which 30 to 60 % in European soils. A few-hundred-employee SME would target 500 to 5,000 annual tonnes. A real-estate or cooperative bank somewhere in between. These magnitudes help buyers size their own strategy alongside peers.
Structural trends 2024-2026
Three deep trends are reshaping the market. (1) Consolidation around integrity: ICVCM approved by early 2026 about 38 CCP methodologies across 8 programmes, including VM0042 v2.2 and the CAR U.S. Soil Enrichment Protocol on soils. Non-CCP methodologies lose value, CCP methodologies command a premium. (2) The rise of soils and nature-based removals: buyers diversify away from traditional forestry avoidance towards soil projects with strong co-benefits and identifiable geography. (3) Arrival of the regulated frame: European CRCF, carbon farming methodologies expected summer 2026, unified registry by December 2028. As the regulated frame stabilises, the voluntary market professionalises and prices trend upwards for compliant assets.
What trajectory 2026-2030?
For buyers and investors, the 2026-2030 projection is clear in broad strokes. Demand: structural rise, driven by CSRD obligations, net-zero commitments approaching 2030 milestones, and European regulatory extraterritoriality (non-EU companies exporting to the EU must comply with ECGT, which pushes them towards documented contribution). Supply: standards maturing (CRCF, ICVCM CCP), European actors professionalising, soil volumes rising. Prices: increasing segmentation, with a widening gap between commodity assets (older-generation avoidance, prices under pressure) and premium assets (CCP-approved European soils, technology removals, rising prices). For those positioning today, the bet is that a rigorous European soil credit will appreciate structurally over 5-10 years.
The agricultural soil credit market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 32 % through 2034. For buyers, now is the moment to structure sourcing before demand tightens prices.
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